Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Rider 30.2%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 5 +3.6      +3.0 96 +0.7 146 80.9 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Iona 24.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.5      +3.1 92 -0.6 188 74.7 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 Canisius 13.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 7 +0.1      +0.7 142 -0.6 186 70.3 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
178 St. Peter's 10.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 -0.8      -3.8 282 +3.1 80 59.2 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 Monmouth 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 10 - 8 -1.0      -1.2 202 +0.2 156 72.8 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Fairfield 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 9 -3.5      -2.9 257 -0.5 183 73.9 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 Quinnipiac 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.3      -0.7 188 -3.6 289 66.0 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Niagara 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      -1.2 204 -4.7 321 80.1 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Marist 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -6.1      -1.9 221 -4.2 306 72.7 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Siena 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 7 - 11 -6.5      -4.2 286 -2.3 257 64.5 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 Manhattan 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -7.1      -5.8 321 -1.3 216 64.5 297 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Rider 2.9 35.9 20.4 13.4 9.3 7.4 4.8 3.3 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5
Iona 3.3 28.5 20.0 15.0 10.0 8.4 6.3 4.3 3.2 2.0 1.6 0.8
Canisius 4.3 15.2 15.8 14.1 12.0 11.4 9.4 7.5 5.6 4.3 2.8 1.6
St. Peter's 4.5 13.7 15.0 14.1 12.5 11.5 9.3 8.1 6.3 4.7 3.2 1.7
Monmouth 5.0 11.0 12.1 12.5 12.4 11.7 10.2 9.2 7.7 6.1 4.4 2.7
Fairfield 6.0 6.2 8.1 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.6 9.9 9.9 7.9 5.9
Quinnipiac 6.6 3.9 5.9 7.4 9.0 9.8 10.1 11.5 10.9 11.7 10.8 9.1
Niagara 7.3 2.2 4.2 5.8 6.9 8.6 9.7 10.5 12.4 12.7 13.6 13.5
Marist 7.3 2.1 3.6 5.2 6.5 9.2 9.8 11.3 12.7 13.0 13.7 12.8
Siena 7.4 1.7 3.9 4.9 6.8 8.2 9.1 11.0 13.0 13.0 14.3 14.1
Manhattan 7.8 1.4 2.7 4.3 6.0 7.3 8.7 10.5 12.4 13.7 15.0 18.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Rider 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.1 5.7 8.1 9.8 11.9 13.1 12.6 11.6 9.7 5.4 1.8
Iona 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 5.5 7.5 8.9 10.9 11.9 12.4 12.0 9.9 6.9 4.1 1.6
Canisius 11 - 7 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.5 6.5 8.4 10.4 11.4 12.1 11.1 10.6 7.8 5.6 3.2 1.8 0.5
St. Peter's 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.8 7.3 8.8 10.5 11.6 11.7 11.3 9.0 8.4 4.9 3.2 1.3 0.3
Monmouth 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.5 10.4 11.3 11.4 11.2 9.6 8.2 6.2 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.2
Fairfield 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.3 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.2 10.1 9.1 7.2 5.7 4.0 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Quinnipiac 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.0 7.4 9.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 10.2 9.6 7.1 5.7 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1
Niagara 7 - 11 0.6 2.3 4.6 7.1 9.3 10.6 11.3 11.8 10.5 9.2 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marist 7 - 11 0.7 2.3 4.0 6.8 9.8 10.5 11.9 11.9 11.1 9.6 8.2 5.1 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Siena 7 - 11 0.7 2.2 4.9 7.2 9.7 10.9 12.0 11.9 10.9 9.0 7.2 5.0 3.9 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 6 - 12 0.9 2.9 5.4 9.2 10.8 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.2 8.1 6.4 4.8 2.9 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Rider 35.9% 26.4 7.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iona 28.5% 19.8 7.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Canisius 15.2% 9.7 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 13.7% 8.5 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 11.0% 7.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 6.2% 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 3.9% 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 2.2% 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Marist 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Siena 1.7% 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Rider 30.2% 29.5% 0.7% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 4.8 6.9 7.1 5.0 3.5 69.8 1.0%
Iona 24.1% 23.4% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.2 5.5 4.6 3.1 75.9 0.9%
Canisius 13.0% 12.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 87.0 0.2%
St. Peter's 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.8 3.4 89.8 0.1%
Monmouth 9.9% 9.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 90.1 0.1%
Fairfield 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.7 95.4 0.0%
Quinnipiac 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 96.5 0.1%
Niagara 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 98.1 0.0%
Marist 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 98.1 0.0%
Siena 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 98.5 0.0%
Manhattan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Rider 30.2% 2.2% 29.4% 6.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 24.1% 2.0% 23.3% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 13.0% 1.6% 12.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 10.2% 2.1% 9.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 9.9% 1.4% 9.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.6% 1.0% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 3.5% 0.8% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.9% 0.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 1.9% 0.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 1.5% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
1st Round 94.9% 1.0 5.1 93.7 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 15.1% 0.2 84.9 15.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0